4 fascinating takes from the deep south winter storm

A well-predicted and historic winter storm hit the Deep South this week. I’m looking out my office window at a frozen landscape and 14 degrees F in my part of the Atlanta metropolitan area. Most schools and many businesses are closed. As a meteorologist with over thirty years of experience, there were things about this storm that even made my jaw drop. Here are four ways to take it up a storm with a few lessons sprinkled into the mix as well.

Historic snowfall in New Orleans

In the last three weeks, I have visited New Orleans twice. I attended the Sugar Bowl and the American Meteorological Society conference respectively. The world’s best meteorologists barely missed a historic snowy backdrop for our week-long conference. Eight inches of snow officially fell in New Orleans, and there were unofficial reports approaching 11 inches. That shattered the previous record of 2.7 inches, which had stood since 1963. The National Weather Service noted that before the official recording station, there was a storm in 1895 that produced similar totals.

Stormy conditions along Interstate 10

In another example of things I’ve never seen before (more on that later), the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana issued its first Blizzard Warning. For context, here in the South we often misuse the term and refer to any snowstorm as a blizzard since they are relatively rare. We’re not talking about that here. Portions of the Gulf Coast along Interstate 10 in fact experienced storm conditions as defined by the National Weather Service. Conditions included winds over 35 mph, reduced visibility and snow. This region is certainly used to major hurricanes, tornadoes, heat and flooding. I honestly didn’t have “Blizzard” on their bingo card.

Winter precipitation in Florida and the coastal regions of Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas

One of mine Forbes The editors live in coastal South Carolina. She told me that her child was very excited about the possibility of snow in the Charleston area. I’m a three-time Florida State University graduate, so it was fun to see current students and former classmates acting like kids in the Tallahassee snow. I even saw a video of a student climbing a tree on campus. Although a little strange, it was a moment of unfiltered joy. Joy is a good thing. My friend and well-known hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman shared a great photo of his Mississippi-based hurricane-proof home, which I’ve written about in this format before.

While places like Mobile and Destin received snow, Florida State University meteorologist Brad Johnson said, “The rain-ice-snow line made a home in Tallahassee last night.” This wintry mix scenario was common along the Interstate 95 corridor from Florida to the Carolinas.

Atlanta Snowmageddon 2.0

Here in the Atlanta area things played out exactly as we expected. The weather forecasts were spot on. For days, experts warned that the heaviest snowfall would be from the Atlanta area to the south. On Monday, the National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory and a winter storm warning for relevant counties. As expected, places south of Atlanta got their fair share of snow, but lesser amounts fell in the metropolitan area along and south of Interstate 85. I was particularly fascinated by a photo shared on social media by Augusta resident Jennifer McGhee Mote. . Like many places in the Southeast, this region was devastated by Hurricane Helene and is still recovering. Her photo above shows debris from Hurricane Helene covered in snow. It’s a vivid reminder of the fine line between violence and beauty inherent in weather events.

The forecast for this storm was pretty good in my professional opinion, however the Atlanta area still experienced some challenges, but not to the extent of Snowmageddon 2014. I saw numerous news reports of stranded drivers, four-hour commutes, and icy crashes. The chart above shows Tuesday evening traffic patterns in the Atlanta area. It is very clear where the snow has fallen. So what happened that we can learn from?

The public (and businesses) still struggle with winter messaging

The meteorological setup for this winter storm in Georgia was strikingly similar to the 2014 event that paralyzed Atlanta. Temperatures were unseasonably cold (for Georgia) and snow potential was greatest in the southern Atlanta area. Conditions before the storm were quite dry, which presents the potential for evaporative cooling when the snow machine starts up. A relatively small amount of snow fell in 2014, but with temperatures well below freezing, road conditions became dangerous almost immediately. This left schoolchildren and workers stranded for hours.

After that event, city and state officials convened task forces to learn from that event. I actually served on Mayor Kasim Reed’s task force. With the current storm, I clearly saw examples of lessons being applied. The state prepares more brine to treat the roads and some institutions responded in advance to the danger. Many school systems were closed or turned to digital learning days even though snow wasn’t expected until mid-afternoon. Here are the problems that still exist.

Because snow was expected to fall later in the afternoon, many people went outside or had to go to work. That left some people (and some isolated school systems that didn’t go into lockdown) in a precarious situation because forecasters (myself included) warned for days that afternoon conditions would worsen. People often misunderstand that it is not the “amount” of snow with these storms. It is how quickly it freezes that falls in cold temperatures.

I’m also convinced that winter weather advisories confuse people. I saw a person complaining on a popular Georgia social media site that her county was not on a Winter Storm Warning so they didn’t take action. That county was in a Winter Weather Advisory, which called for accumulations of up to an inch (see chart above). A quick freeze of an inch of snow (or even half that amount) is a recipe for a traffic nightmare. We must continue to educate the public about the advice or consider new approaches. In my view, many people or businesses do not consume advice in the same way as warnings.

Extreme cold events and climate change?

Even as the climate warms, we will always have winter and all that comes with it. Scientific studies have shown that extreme cold events have generally declined in recent decades. Cold snaps and winter storms are hot news when they happen these days. It is important to state that no individual weather event proves or disproves climate change. Weather is your mood, and climate is your personality. However, there are studies showing that climate warming should be examined for its impacts on polar vortex processes and water vapor availability in snowstorms.

While such notions are counterintuitive to some, physics is not. Writing in PBS News AND ConversationMatthew Barlow provided a compelling overview of where the science is on this topic. He wrote, “Recently, we have shown that for large areas of the US, Europe, and Northeast Asia, while the number of these severe cold events is clearly decreasing—as expected with global warming—it does not appear that the intensity theirs is consistent with declining despite rapid warming in their Arctic source regions.” Scientific studies will be needed to strengthen our understanding and provide challenges as well. We’ll certainly have to know if there are more Gulf Coast storms in the future, especially given all the sensitive petrochemical infrastructure there.